View data table
Where each indicator is headed over the next year
Key points
How to read the charts
The solid line shows actual data. The blue line shows the model's forecast, and the shaded band shows the range the value is expected to fall within with 90% confidence. The band widens further out because uncertainty grows with time.
Metro unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted, and metro wages are quarterly totals, so both rise and fall with the seasons.
About the model
The North Carolina Forecast Model, developed by Dr. Jeremy Jackson, is a nested vector autoregression. A model of the U.S. economy feeds a model of North Carolina, which in turn feeds models of the Fayetteville, Charlotte, and Raleigh metro areas. All data come from the FRED database of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Limitations
Forecasts are based on past trends and cannot account for unexpected changes in economic conditions or public policy. The specific values should not be the direct basis for decisions; they show what is possible and help set expectations.